Friday, May 3, 2013

Is China a threat, or we just overthinking?

Recently, in wake of a border dispute, the Sino-Indian relationships are again under scanner. These two powerful neighbors of Asia always have had a checkered relationship. Both countries are equipped with nuclear weapons, have large and well-equipped armies at their behests and, except one major conflict in the 1960s, there had been no major untoward events to report. Although, there are quite a few causes of continuing disagreement, like Indian discontent on Chinese support to Pakistan, or Chinese discontent on India’s role in the South China Sea, yet, overall the relationship parameters have been ‘balanced’.


The general understandings between these two militarily powerful nations of Asia are peaceful and aimed at promoting an environment of mutual financial and strategic ties. The financial equation deserves special mention. The two countries facilitated $66.4 billion worth of trade in 2012. Recently a mutual agreement was signed between the responsible authorities of the two countries, aiming at a momentous $100 billion trade by 2015. India and China are also two of the important members of the new financial coalition, BRICS.
Let us have a look at the reasons why China ‘may’ possess a threat. The main issue with China is its abruptness and unpredictability of actions. Take the current border dispute for example.

Suddenly the Indian side discovers Chinese troops claiming their position, ‘apparently’ in the Indian side of the border! Chinese officials insist that there has been no trespassing and Indian officers confirm that the region where the ‘trespassing and settling soldier camps’ is a disputed region. Does the presence of a disputed region mean Chinese troops can occupy and set up camps in the region? When it is disputed, it should not belong to either country! The Chinese logic apparently seems, “let India think it is disputed, we know that this land belongs to us.”

Diplomats are busy finding the answer, whereas, both countries have thought it befit to put their respective armies on high alert and strengthen the forces at the controversial Depsang area in the Western Sector of the Sino-Indian boundary. The Chinese action was abrupt, but well planned, and still now no signs show that the Chinese army intends to budge from their camps. In case, China refuses to retreat, India’s possible alternatives remains unclear. We can only guess at the high voltage diplomatic drama within the corridors of the Indian Government and the Chinese Government. 
 
The CCP governs the Chinese democracy with an iron hand, which is evident from the heavy censoring and regulation of internet in China. Even in this age of information, China completely controls the information flow to the world via the internet. Criticisms of Government policies online are under strict limits imposed by the CCP, and any violations are met with severity. China passed a law in 2007 that bans Tibetan Buddhist monks from reincarnation! China’s obsession with territory acquisition can be surmised from the fact that lakhs of Tibetans received refuge in India and other parts of the world when China ascertained control over Tibet. Many Tibetan monks have since given life by self-immolation, without having any effect on China’s policy over Tibet. (In fact, the fact that India houses the Tibetan exile Government at Dharamshala, may be one of the ulterior motives behind Chinese aggression.) These references go on to imply that the Chinese government is a very strict one, and Indian diplomats would find it tough to come in terms with Chinese aggression, and work out a solution.

China is not yet a ‘threat’ ‘per se’, but possesses the willingness and the potential to be one.

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